Macro Pulse

A Supply-Constrained World Comes into Sharper Focus

Markets may be taking some comfort from tentative de-escalation signals in the Middle East, but the economic aftershocks are still working their way through—via energy prices, supply chains and heightened geopolitical risk. This week’s charts focus on:
 
• The global business cycle — momentum vs resilience• Elevated (and increasingly structural) uncertainty• Renewed supply chain stress• A more complex and uncertain policy backdrop• Questions around monetary policy credibility• Oil prices vs still-anchored inflation expectations
 
A global economy that’s still running—but more fragile, more supply-driven, and harder to manage.

Energy Shock — Early Signals, Uncertain Fallout

The sharp escalation in Middle East tensions is already reverberating through global markets — pushing energy prices higher, exposing the world economy’s deep reliance on fossil fuels, and prompting a rethink of how far and how fast central banks can ease.
 
In this week’s charts, we unpack the macro implications through:
 
Geopolitical risk dynamics
The global energy mix
Energy use and real oil prices
Short-end bond yield repricing
European sentiment
China’s investment pulse
 
Still early days — but the direction of travel is becoming clearer.

Geopolitics Meets the Global Economy

Financial markets have clearly rattled by the sharp escalation of tensions in the Middle East over the past few days, with oil prices see-sawing, risk assets wobbling and investors reassessing the potential macroeconomic fallout from a potential energy shock. Yet, while it is still very early days, this week’s charts suggest that the global economic outlook has so far remained relatively resilient.

Shockwaves from the Gulf

In this week’s Charts of the Week, we present six charts that illustrate some of the key issues, implications and points to watch, from the flare up of geopolitical instability in the Middle East. These include:
Movements in geopolitical risk
Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz
Energy prices
Global shipping costs and supply chain pressures
Inflation surprises and oil
The structure of global electricity generation

The AI Undercurrent

Over the past few days, financial markets have been navigating a fresh wave of policy and geopolitical cross-currents, with the US Supreme Court ruling on executive tariff authority adding a new layer of uncertainty to the trade outlook. At the same time, the AI investment boom continues to provide an important cyclical tailwind, even as investors remain alert to valuation risks. In our charts this week we focus on:
The Global Business Cycle
South Korea’s semiconductor trade
US investment in AI infrastructure
Germany’s capital spending renaissance
Oil prices and monetary policy
Japan’s economy and JGB yields
 

AI, Policy Easing and a Shifting Risk Premium

Recent weeks have seen renewed market swings — a softer US dollar, rotation within equities and shifting rate expectations — as investors reassess valuations, policy risks and the durability of US exceptionalism. Yet a consistent macro thread runs through our charts this week. This week’s themes include:
The US risk premium
Bank lending growth
Producing AI versus Using AI
Asia’s industrial production and AI
US orders of high tech products
Emerging market portfolio flows

In Conversation with Data Partner: ADP Research

This week, Dr. Nela Richardson, ADP Chief Economist and Head of ADP Research, joins Andy Cates on  to recap their recent webinar covering the ADP National Employment Report as well as the recently launched NER pulse. Listen to their conversation as we examine the power of ADP Payroll Data. 

Weaker Dollar, Stronger Tech

Financial markets have seen renewed gyrations in recent weeks, with a weaker US dollar, higher interest rate volatility and shifting capital flows reviving discussion of a “Sell America” narrative — so far more a marginal rebalancing than a wholesale retreat. In our charts this week we focus on:
 
Global growth conditions
The US dollar
Consumer confidence in the US and Europe
Financial markets and data surprises
The US economy and AI
Taiwan’s economy and AI

Between Optimism and Uncertainty

The global backdrop remains unsettled, reflected in rising gold prices amid geopolitical tensions. At the same time, however, many major equity indices remain at or close to all-time highs, buoyed by optimism around AI and reinforced by a run of relatively benign US inflation readings. In our charts this week we focus on:
The Blue Chip growth consensus
Central bank policy rate expectations
UK data surprises and the BoE
The impact of Artificial Intelligence
US business formation and productvity growth
China's export growth

Cooling Inflation, Diverging Growth

Over the past few weeks, global financial markets have taken comfort from cooling inflation, resilient earnings and continued upside surprises in the dataflow. More recently, however, geopolitical developments have injected a note of caution, even as the macro backdrop remains broadly supportive. In our charts this week we focus on:
Global growth conditions
Supply chain pressures and inflation
Interest rate expectations
Venezuela and oil
China's excess capacity
Public sector intebtedness