Macro Pulse

Forecasters Hold Firm

Oil prices are lower, the US-Iran memorandum is holding, and this week's euro area flash CPI came in below expectations. The near-term inflation picture is improving. But professional forecasters have barely moved their rate calls.

Calmer Waters, New Currents

Oil is lower, Hormuz traffic is recovering, and the geopolitical risk premium embedded in energy markets since March is unwinding. But calmer waters shouldn't be confused with resolved ones. Beneath the surface, some important new currents are running.
 
In our charts this week:
 
Equity market momentum and global growth surprises — a shifting picture
Oil and US two-year yields have decoupled — the Fed under Warsh isn't following crude lower
June flash PMIs: supply chain stress easing, manufacturing price pressures softening
Hormuz shipping traffic recovering — direction matters even if levels remain depressed
South Korea exports, including semis, flagging a modest loss of momentum
Super El Niño building — the SOI is drifting negative, and history shows what that means for Asian rice supply

Between Relief and Reality

The US-Iran MoU has delivered a genuine moment of geopolitical relief — oil lower, yields down, risk assets recovering. But relief is not the same as resolution. Beneath the headlines, the underlying data continue to tell a more complex story.
 
In our charts this week:
 
US growth outperformance widens; Europe and China disappoint
UK gilt yields, oil prices and the Bank of England's next move
Global semiconductor sales surge to record highs on AI demand
Oil retreats on the MoU; copper, uranium and critical minerals hold firm
Energy availability as a binding constraint on growth
Why this investment boom looks different from the late 1990s

Inflation at the Crossroads

The global macro backdrop has grown more unsettled. A stronger-than-expected US jobs report has pushed back Fed easing expectations, a tech sell-off has rattled sentiment, and Middle East instability continues to keep energy markets on edge. In our latest Charts of the Week we examine:
 
GDP growth forecasts: broad deterioration, with Taiwan the striking exception
Why 2027 inflation forecasts are now drifting above target
The reassuring signal from US unit labour costs
Renewed supply chain stress and the PPI pipeline
Energy costs as a structural constraint, not an exceptional shock
China's quiet trade normalisation with the US
 
The key question is whether the current energy shock proves more persistent than even the already-cautious consensus currently assumes.

Inflation Fears, AI Cheers

The global macro backdrop continues to evolve in ways that would have surprised many investors at the start of the year. Expectations of widespread monetary easing have steadily receded as inflation has proven more persistent and economic activity more resilient than anticipated. In our charts this week we examine:
 
The growing bias toward monetary policy tightening
Firming US labour demand
Supply side inflation risks
Ebbing US tariff pressures
South Korea’s semiconductor boom
Equity capital flows across Asia
 
Together, these charts highlight a world economy that remains surprisingly resilient, while raising important questions about the outlook for inflation, interest rates, and global investment trends.

The AI Boom Meets Inflation Angst

Markets have remained relatively resilient as oil prices soften on renewed hopes surrounding the US-Iran negotiations. But beneath the surface, the macro backdrop remains fragile. In our charts this week:
 
• Europe remains vulnerable to higher energy prices• US consumer confidence continues to weaken• Not yet close to the pandemic-era liquidity shock• Broad money growth remains subdued• AI infrastructure investment continues to surge• Semiconductor demand still powering ahead
 
The global economy remains caught between two powerful and competing forces: renewed geopolitical and energy-related inflation risks on one side and a historic AI-driven investment and infrastructure boom on the other.

Surprise, Surprise

Markets have swung back toward inflation angst as Middle East tensions and higher energy prices push bond yields higher again. But beneath the surface, the macro picture remains increasingly divided:
 
• US inflation surprises re-emerging• Global bond yields backing up• US labour bargaining power still weak• Oil prices elevated despite fading war fears• Core inflation still relatively benign• AI investment boom accelerating
 
The global economy remains caught between two powerful and competing forces: renewed supply-side inflation risks on one side and a historic AI-driven investment boom on the other.

Still Standing

Talk of a potential easing in Middle East tensions has steadied markets. But scratch the surface, and the macro picture remains far from settled. This week’s charts highlight the growing tension:
 
• Global manufacturing holding up — despite higher energy prices• Shipping costs rising — supply chains tightening again• Oil production constrained — logistics, not demand, the issue• Policy expectations shifting — tilt back toward tightening risk
• US bank lending standards – in neutral for now
• Wage pressures still elevated — particularly in the UK
 
The takeaway? Markets are still standing — but the balance between growth and inflation is becoming increasingly fragile.

Tension Beneath the Surface

Despite persistent geopolitical tensions, higher energy prices, and a packed week of central bank decisions (Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ), financial markets have remained remarkably resilient. But beneath that surface calm, the data are starting to tell a more complicated story. This week’s charts highlight the growing tension:
 
Front-end yields repricing “higher for longer”
Real-time US recession risks — contained
A divergence in consumer confidence (US vs Europe)
Tighter credit conditions in the euro area
An intensifying semiconductor price boom
And AI beginning to reshape labour markets
 
The takeaway? Markets may be holding up — but the underlying macro is becoming more finely balanced.

Risks Build, Markets Shrug

Financial markets have remained strikingly calm in recent weeks — despite rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a softening macro narrative, and elevated uncertainty. Volatility is subdued. Financial stress indicators are benign. Equities, for now, are choosing to look through both the conflict and the weaker data. That resilience feels… notable. Because beneath the surface, the macro backdrop is becoming more nuanced — and arguably more fragile. In this week’s charts, we dig into the tension between market calm and macro reality:
 
• The IMF’s latest global outlook — and what it says about the direction of travel• Financial stress gauges — still quiet, but for how long?• Growth and inflation surprises vs. market volatility — a widening disconnect• Inflation nowcasts — early signals on where prices are heading next• Energy pass-through — the lingering impact of recent shocks• Germany’s ZEW survey — sentiment at the heart of Europe