A Benign Phase

Bond markets are pricing a tightening cycle. Equity markets are arguably pricing a productivity boom. Both can't be right for long.

This week's Charts of the Week looks at why the current combination is so unusual — and what would end it.

→ Policy rates expected higher in every major economy

→ AI hiring spreading well beyond the US

→ Output accelerating, core inflation still falling

→ The global capex cycle has turned

→ Pay growth has halved while unemployment barely moved

→ Power costs climbing where the data centres are