Macro Pulse

From Blue To Red

US policy decisions have continued to generate volatility in financial markets, reflecting mounting investor unease about the global economic outlook. Consensus forecasts for growth in 2025 have certainly been revised down significantly, while inflation expectations—particularly in the US—have moved higher. In our charts this week we focus on:
Consensus growth forecasts
Consensus inflation forecasts
Financial market volatility
US business sentiment
Global shipping costs
China's real estate sector 
 

Mission Impossible and Fallout

The global economy received a brief reprieve on April 9th, as President Trump announced a 90-day pause on his sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs. However, intensifying US-China trade tensions continue to cast a long shadow over the economic outlook. In our charts this week we focus on:
China and US trade tariffs
US investment in intangibles
US trade deficits and relative demand
High-tech trade and US capacity
Uncertainty and financial markets
The global business cycle 

Trade shocks

The return of protectionist trade policies under the new US administration has added a significant layer of uncertainty to an already fragile global landscape. This was dramatically amplified on April 2nd, when the administration announced a sweeping package of tariffs on a broad range of imports from key trading partners—including the EU, China, and several emerging markets. These measures were more expansive in both scope and scale than markets had anticipated, and they carry the potential for significant global economic disruption—particularly if targeted trading partners respond with retaliatory countermeasures, escalating the risk of a full-scale trade conflict.
In our charts this week we focus on:
·       US trade policy uncertainty
·       US data surprises and stagflation risks
·       The policy rate consensus
·       Europe’s labour market
·       China’s economy
·       Global trade fragility

Tariffs, Tensions, and Trade-Offs

Financial markets remain gripped by heightened uncertainty surrounding US trade policy, slowing US growth, and broader fears of global economic instability. In our charts this week we home in on:
·       Manufacturers’ input prices
·       Supply chain pressures and UK inflation
·       The dollar and US growth
·       Electricity prices in selected major economies
·       Living standards (and energy prices)
·       China’s exports and competitiveness

Reversal of fortunes

US equity markets have underperformed relative to global peers in recent weeks, as investor sentiment has deteriorated in response to weaker-than-expected growth data and growing concerns about the Trump administration’s economic policies. The administration’s renewed push for tariffs, alongside fiscal expansion and tighter immigration policies, has fuelled stagflation fears, compounding the uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s next steps. In our charts this week we focus on:
·         US equity markets and data surprises
·         US capital flows versus the dollar
·         National savings rates
·         Ageing populations and deindustrialisation
·         Wage inflation in the US and Europe
·         China’s property market
 

From Blue to Red

Download the free charts and commentary here: https://haverproducts.com/charts-of-the-week/
The recent financial market volatility, marked by sharp swings in global bond yields and equity market repricing, reflects growing uncertainty about the trajectory of the US economy amid a rapidly shifting policy environment. The US administration’s latest tariff measures, and their conflicting objectives, have amplified uncertainty, stifled risk appetite and ignited global growth concerns. In our charts this week we focus on:
·       Fading US growth momentum
·       Consensus inflation forecasts
·       Global bond market gyrations
·       Foreign ownership of US assets
·       Industrialisation versus de-industrialisation
·       Global competitiveness
 

Goodwill Hunting

View the charts here: https://haverproducts.com/charts-of-the-week/Financial markets have experienced heightened volatility in recent days, with investor sentiment rattled by rising US recession risks, escalating global trade tensions, and mounting geopolitical uncertainties. Sharp decline in US stocks, lower yields coupled with weaker confidence data reflect growing concerns that recent trade and economic policies from the US administration are sapping economic growth and increasing financial instability. In our charts this week we focus on:
US recession risks
FDI and Goodwill
China’s growth target
South Korea’s economy
The ECB and inflation
Energy and growth

No Free Lunch

The global economy remains in a delicate position, with financial markets exhibiting resilience despite key policy uncertainties, geopolitical sensitivities, and a fragile pace of economic growth across many regions. In our charts this week we focus on:
·       US growth surprises
·       US trade in goods versus services
·       Global policy uncertainty and the dollar
·       Defence spending in Europe
·       Dun and Bradstreet’s risk indicators
·       Canada’s supply side risks
 

Calm before the storm?

Financial markets have remained relatively calm in recent days despite potentially disruptive US trade policy shifts and incoming data indicating that inflationary pressures have been lingering. Investor sentiment suggests a wait-and-see approach, with markets appearing confident that central banks can navigate inflation risks without triggering sharp economic slowdowns. In our charts this week we home in on:·       Uncertainty and markets
·       US inflation and tariffs
·       Wage pressures in the US and Europe
·       Global growth at the end of last year
·       Electricity prices in major economies
·       Japan’s economic momentum

Tariff Trouble

Copy and paste this link into your browser to download the free chart pack and follow along with the podcast:  https://haverproducts.com/?sdm_process_download=1&download_id=25814President Trump’s tariff policies have been a major driver of financial market volatility in recent days, sparking sharp swings in equities and currencies. While the administration has temporarily reversed its proposal for a 25% tariff on imported goods from Canada and Mexico, uncertainty surrounding US trade relationships, the risk of retaliatory measures from key trading partners, and broader concerns about global growth continue to unsettle investors. In our charts this week we drill into the following:
·         Global current account balances
·         The US dollar’s resilience
·         Potential growth rates in the US versus the RoW
·         The US dollar’s reserve currency status
·         Savings, investment and demographics
·         Global shipping costs and supply chain pressures