Episodes
2 days ago
Flash Dance
2 days ago
2 days ago
Following a week in which the risks to the global economic outlook suddenly skewed to the downside, the pendulum has swung back again over the past few days. Confidence in a soft landing for the world economy has instead now re-surfaced partly thanks to firmer-than-expected global economic data, together with some solid corporate earnings reports from the United States. In our charts this week we delve into:
· The global business cycle
· Copper prices
· Semiconductor trade
· Monetary policy transmission
· US fiscal policy support
· Euro area financial balances
Friday Apr 19, 2024
Geopolitics, oil, the IMF and China
Friday Apr 19, 2024
Friday Apr 19, 2024
Investors have grown increasingly cautious about the economic outlook in recent days, partly thanks to heightened geopolitical instability in the Middle East. That Fed Chair Powell has also expressed greater concern about the US inflation outlook has not helped, not least as higher oil prices (and the resilience of the US economy) had already been unsettling investors’ inflation expectations. In our charts this week we focus on:
· The IMF’s latest economic forecasts
· Geopolitical risk and oil prices
· Global oil reserves
· US Treasury yields versus oil prices
· US financial conditions and economic growth
· China’s economic growth in Q1
Friday Apr 12, 2024
Oil in the price
Friday Apr 12, 2024
Friday Apr 12, 2024
This week’s stronger-than-expected US inflation data have further dampened hopes that the Fed would swiftly lower interest rates in coming months. And this has led to increased anxiety about the outlook for the US and broader world economy. In our charts this week we home in on:
· The global growth consensus
· The global inflation consensus
· Energy prices and US inflation surprises
· Oil prices and global growth surprises
· The global business cycle
· Euro area bank lending conditions
Thursday Apr 04, 2024
Something for everyone
Thursday Apr 04, 2024
Thursday Apr 04, 2024
Renewed concerns about the US Fed's ability to lower interest rates in coming months have triggered broader anxiety in financial markets over the past few days. In our charts this week we focus on:
· South Korea’s trade flows
· Euro area CPI inflation
· US money market inflows
· Global economic policy uncertainty
· US productivity and new business applications
· China’s credit formation and business surveys
Thursday Mar 28, 2024
The soft landing narrative (again)
Thursday Mar 28, 2024
Thursday Mar 28, 2024
Recent weeks have seen heightened optimism in financial markets that the global economy is on course for a soft landing. This optimism is rooted in a number of factors, including stronger-than-expected economic data, dovish communications from several central banks alongside tame inflation outcomes in Europe and Asia. In our charts this week we offer further perspective on this narrative. Specifically we look at:
· Broad money growth and equity markets
· The resilience of US capital spending
· Receding inflation expectations in the euro area
· Fading global supply chain pressures
· Equity market inflows in Asia
· India’s catch-up growth potential
Thursday Mar 21, 2024
Up, down, and somewhere in between
Thursday Mar 21, 2024
Thursday Mar 21, 2024
The decisions from several central banks this week have, on the whole, amplified hopes that the world economy remains on course for a soft landing. Investors were certainly reassured by the absence of big changes to the Fed's interest rate outlook as well as this week’s unexpected decision to cut interest rates by the Swiss National Bank. In our charts this week we examine:
· US interest rate expectations
· Japan’s interest rate differentials and the yen
· Core inflation in several advanced economies
· Emerging market growth surprises
· China’s credit impulse
· Equity market inflows in major economies
Thursday Mar 14, 2024
Not too shocking
Thursday Mar 14, 2024
Thursday Mar 14, 2024
With little to destabilise financial markets over the past few days, soft landing narratives have remained in vogue. While this week’s US CPI report was certainly a little stronger-than-anticipated, other indicators, including the latest UK labour market report, were more benign. In charts this week we look in more depth at:
· US Inflation drivers
· The health of the UK labour market
· Japan’s supply side drivers
· China’s EV penetration
· Consensus growth forecasts
· Economic shocks and the consensus
Friday Mar 08, 2024
Goldeneyes
Friday Mar 08, 2024
Friday Mar 08, 2024
The equity market rally that kicked off in late October has grabbed the financial headlines in recent weeks. And there has been an abundance of optimistic narratives that support the rally’s rationale and the prospects for an extension in the near term. In this week’s charts we provide some insights into some of these narratives. In particular we focus on:
· The renaissance in US manufacturing investment
· AI and the global semiconductor sector
· Positive global growth surprises
· A cooling US labour market
· Japan’s foreign investor inflows
· Cryptocurrencies
Thursday Feb 29, 2024
When the chips are up
Thursday Feb 29, 2024
Thursday Feb 29, 2024
Prospects for a swift pivot toward looser monetary policy in the US and Europe have been diminished by persistent inflationary pressures and stronger-than-expected labour market conditions over the past few weeks. Equity market sentiment in most major economies, however, has remained resilient, buoyed by a positive stream of corporate earnings news, especially from the technology sector. In our charts this week we focus on:
· Consumer confidence in the US and Europe
· US technological innovation
· Semiconductor inventories in Asia
· The Italian bond market
· Credit conditions in the euro area
· Internet sales in the UKRead the full publication here: https://haverproducts.com/charts-of-the-week/
Thursday Feb 22, 2024
Navigating cyclical and structural headwinds
Thursday Feb 22, 2024
Thursday Feb 22, 2024
A quiet economic calendar coupled with holidays in North America and much of Asia have left markets struggling for direction in recent days. A noteworthy development, nevertheless, was this week’s FOMC minutes which revealed concerns among some members about reducing US policy rates too soon. In our charts this week we home in on the following:
· Market expectations for Fed policy
· Inflation surprises and energy prices
· High frequency gauges of labour market activity
· Wage inflation in the euro area
· South Korea’s semiconductor trade
· Social progress in the world economyDownload the free publication here: https://haverproducts.com/?sdm_process_download=1&download_id=23413
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