Macro Pulse

The real economy has refused to buckle. Through a year of tariffs, conflict and tighter money, global growth has held up — and firmer growth has sat naturally alongside higher yields. Indeed, what stands out is why those yields are climbing: almost entirely the real rate and behind it the deeper question of who is now willing to fund America's debt. This week's six charts:
 
🔹 Global GDP held near its long-run pace in Q2
🔹 August flash PMIs confirm it — helped by industry
🔹 South Korea's chip exports go near-vertical
🔹 The yield climb is being led by the real component
🔹 The world funds a shrinking share of US debt
🔹 Surplus nations turn to gold
 

In this week’s podcast, Andy talks with Sharmila Whelan from Westbourne Research.
Long-term interest rates are back near two-decade highs. The short end has eased as soft US data pare back Fed tightening bets, but the long end keeps climbing on deeper, structural forces. Many of this week’s charts set out what they are.
US data soften, short-end yields ease
Japan leans on exports, not domestic demand
Defence spending climbs across Europe
Corporates turn from savers to borrowers
The saving glut remains concentrated in China
US productivity growth (TFP) slips into negative territory

In this episode, Andy Cates is joined by Daniel Jerrett, PhD — founder of SmartMacro Labs and Haver's official training partner — to get past the noise around AI and ask what the technology actually changes for economists and investment teams. They discuss why most teams are stuck in a prompt loop with a ceiling, what separates a chat window from a genuine macro research system (persistence, context engineering, and a trusted data source), how MCP lets models pull Haver data directly, and where human judgment still matters most. Daniel also previews his hands-on workshop, where participants build a working AI research system inside Claude in a single day.
 
 
 
 

The global economy has held up better than a noisy summer might suggest, with tensions in the Middle East, intervention to steady the yen, and nerves over AI spending all unsettling sentiment — yet the data have stayed firm and the pressure on interest rates has been upward, not down. In this week's publication we look at why the world economy is proving so resilient, and at the rising cost — in both capital and resources — of the investment boom now under way:
Global activity has climbed back above its normal trend.
Policy-rate expectations have been marked up across almost every major economy.
The neutral rate is now higher than in 2019 in every advanced economy.
The rise is led mainly by the swelling supply of government debt.
Banks have stopped tightening — the investment boom is funded from profits, not debt.
The real copper price sits close to a multi-decade high.

The Federal Reserve held rates again this week, but the more consequential story is the investment cycle now lifting the real cost of capital — and whether all that spending will pay off. This week's charts trace it from the Fed to the physical constraints that will decide the outcome:
Fed holds a fifth time, but on a divided vote
Real yields at a two-decade high — driven by growth, not inflation
July flash PMIs show a manufacturing-led upturn
G4 manufacturing orders have turned firmly higher
The equity–bond correlations that broke in 2022 have reverted
Baltic energy freight surges while dry bulk stays calm

Freight markets can offer a timely window into global trade, demand and economic activity—but their signals are often overlooked. Nadia Mirza of the Baltic Exchange joins Haver Analytics Senior Economist Andy Cates to discuss the Baltic’s role in global freight markets, the data and benchmarks it produces, and the new BALTIC database available through Haver Analytics.

Global growth continues to hold up well, but this week's data flag a few fresh risks on the inflation and geopolitical front. In our charts this week:
Global equity markets remain resilient
Global PMIs point to a solid expansion
US growth, not inflation, is keeping bond yields elevated
Supply chains eased in June, but this week’s Middle East flare-up threatens that
Extreme heat across Europe is a fresh supply-side risk
AI investment’s highs in 2025

Oil prices are lower, the US-Iran memorandum is holding, and this week's euro area flash CPI came in below expectations. The near-term inflation picture is improving. But professional forecasters have barely moved their rate calls.

Oil is lower, Hormuz traffic is recovering, and the geopolitical risk premium embedded in energy markets since March is unwinding. But calmer waters shouldn't be confused with resolved ones. Beneath the surface, some important new currents are running.
 
In our charts this week:
 
Equity market momentum and global growth surprises — a shifting picture
Oil and US two-year yields have decoupled — the Fed under Warsh isn't following crude lower
June flash PMIs: supply chain stress easing, manufacturing price pressures softening
Hormuz shipping traffic recovering — direction matters even if levels remain depressed
South Korea exports, including semis, flagging a modest loss of momentum
Super El Niño building — the SOI is drifting negative, and history shows what that means for Asian rice supply

The US-Iran MoU has delivered a genuine moment of geopolitical relief — oil lower, yields down, risk assets recovering. But relief is not the same as resolution. Beneath the headlines, the underlying data continue to tell a more complex story.
 
In our charts this week:
 
US growth outperformance widens; Europe and China disappoint
UK gilt yields, oil prices and the Bank of England's next move
Global semiconductor sales surge to record highs on AI demand
Oil retreats on the MoU; copper, uranium and critical minerals hold firm
Energy availability as a binding constraint on growth
Why this investment boom looks different from the late 1990s