Macro Pulse

Between Optimism and Uncertainty

The global backdrop remains unsettled, reflected in rising gold prices amid geopolitical tensions. At the same time, however, many major equity indices remain at or close to all-time highs, buoyed by optimism around AI and reinforced by a run of relatively benign US inflation readings. In our charts this week we focus on:
The Blue Chip growth consensus
Central bank policy rate expectations
UK data surprises and the BoE
The impact of Artificial Intelligence
US business formation and productvity growth
China's export growth

Cooling Inflation, Diverging Growth

Over the past few weeks, global financial markets have taken comfort from cooling inflation, resilient earnings and continued upside surprises in the dataflow. More recently, however, geopolitical developments have injected a note of caution, even as the macro backdrop remains broadly supportive. In our charts this week we focus on:
Global growth conditions
Supply chain pressures and inflation
Interest rate expectations
Venezuela and oil
China's excess capacity
Public sector intebtedness

The Upside Risks

In this week’s charts, we highlight a cluster of upside risks that may be underappreciated in current economic forecasts. These include:
A faster-than-expected pace of policy easing in advanced economies 
A further sharp decline in oil prices
A positive AI-driven surprise from US productivity 
Unexpected resilience from the US economy
India's growth momentum firms again
The Global South exhibits much greater domestic autonomy
 
This marks our final Charts of the Week publication for 2026. The next edition will be released on Thursday 8 January.

The Downside Risks

As 2025 draws to a close, the global economy heads into 2026 with a surprisingly resilient backdrop: equities remain near cycle highs, volatility is low, and growth forecasts have been edging up. Against this constructive backdrop, our charts this week focus on some of the key downside risks that concern:
The global growth consensus
Central bank policy calibration
Financial market stability
AI expectation versus reality 
Global trade disruption
Geopolitical risks 

Diverging Paths, Converging Risks

Global financial markets have been navigating a more unsettled backdrop in recent weeks, with choppier risk sentiment and shifting rate expectations reshaping the macro narrative. US assets have been particularly sensitive to signs of cooling labour-market momentum, while rising real yields in Japan and renewed fiscal tightening in the UK have added further cross-currents. In our charts this week we home in on:
 
The global policy rate consensus
The US labour market
Euro area inflation 
Real rates in Japan
UK government debt 
South Korea's semiconductor trade

D&B's Global Business Survey Data

In this podcast, Arun Singh, Dun & Bradstreet's Global Chief Economist, joins Andy Cates from Haver Analytics, to explore D&B’s Global Business Insights Survey — a powerful decision-making lens for leaders who want to act early, think clearly, and navigate uncertainty with confidence.

The Year Ahead

As 2025 draws to a close, the global economy feels caught between relief and unease. Inflation has eased but not fully retreated, monetary-policy cycles are pulling in different directions, markets are oscillating between AI-driven enthusiasm and valuation nerves, and geopolitical tensions are pressing harder on trade, energy and investment flows. 
 
Against this backdrop, we discuss twelve themes that set out the forces most likely to shape the macro, market and policy landscape in 2026. They range from the pivotal questions around whether AI will deliver visible productivity gains, how far the AI narrative can continue to support markets, and how policymakers will manage an unusually uncertain interest-rate outlook, to the broader pressures created by fiscal strains, climate stress, shifting trade patterns, geopolitical fragmentation, political transitions, and demographic change.

The Year in Review

The global economic story of 2025 has been one of resilience amid disruption. Despite a succession of shocks — from US trade policies and elevated geopolitical risks— the world economy has held up better than many feared. In our charts this week we review:
Global data surprises and market volatility
Monetary policy calibration and inflation
The stance of fiscal policy
AI investment and productivity growth
US/China trade flows
Uncertainty and geopolitical risk

Optimism with caveats

Global equity markets are once again flirting with record highs, buoyed by renewed optimism that the global economy can achieve a soft landing—and by persistent enthusiasm over the potential productivity gains from AI-related investment. In our charts this week we focus on:
The Fed and interest rate expectations
The global business cycle
Consumer confidence in the US and Europe
Euro area credit conditions
UK manufacturing
Shipping costs and traded goods prices

Risks and Relief

Financial markets have been pulled between opposing forces in recent days. Risk sentiment has been hit by concerns over US lenders, credit conditions, tariffs, the government shutdown, and a potential AI-driven valuation bubble (chart 1). Offsetting this, easing growth and inflation have strengthened expectations of further central bank rate cuts, lifting soft-landing hopes. In our charts this week we drill into:
 
US equity market valuations
Non-US equity markets and data surprises
Oil prices and monetary policy
China's credit growth
US wage pressures
UK inflation