Macro Pulse

Cracks Beneath The Shine

Recent financial market gains have been underpinned by resilient global data, AI-fuelled optimism, and hopes that most central banks will continue to loosen monetary policy. Yet beneath the surface, a more complicated picture may be emerging. In our chart this week we home in on:
US housing indicators
China's economy
UK inflation
Oil and inflation expectations
Clean energy
Renewables versus non-renewables
 

What gives?

Global financial markets head into late summer buoyed by resilient risk appetite, underpinned by hopes that AI will boost productivity and growth alongside expectations for further central bank policy easing. Yet this optimism has not been fully mirrored in the macro outlook. In our charts this week we focus on:
Markets and data surprises
The US investment consensus
The global growth consensus
US inflation drivers
The UK labour market
Energy prices and monetary policy 

Downside Risks

Following last week's softer-than-expected US labour market report bond yields have fallen sharply as investors repriced the outlook for Fed easing. This recalibration arguably also reflects growing awareness of mounting downside risks across the US and broader global economy. In our charts this week we focus on:
Capacity pressures in the US and Europe
US housing market weakness
US bank lending standards
Global growth momentum
Shipping costs and supply chain pressures
Excess capacity in China 

Headwinds and Heatwaves

Financial markets have remained generally buoyant in recent days, with global equity indices advancing on the back of relatively upbeat global growth data, benign European inflation readings and the prospect of further policy easing from major central banks. In our charts this week we focus on:
The global policy rate consensus
The dollar and data surprises
Stagflation risks
US port congestion
Global warming
Productivity losses from heat stress

Calmer on the surface, cracks beneath

Financial markets have been on a geopolitical rollercoaster in recent days. The Iran–Israel flare-up briefly sent oil prices surging and risk assets tumbling, but tensions have since eased and market conditions have stabilised. That calm has refocused attention on underlying fundamentals—and the signals are mixed. In our charts this week we focus on:
Global business cycle indicators
South Korea's trade
Consumer confidence in the US and Europe
Disinflation progress in advanced economies
Gold and Bitcoin prices
Global electricity generation  

Conflict, energy and constraints

Financial markets have been jolted over the past week by a sharp escalation in geopolitical risk. The sudden intensification of hostilities between Israel and Iran—marked by missile strikes and retaliatory air operations—has reignited fears of a broader regional conflict with global consequences. In our charts this week we focus on:
Geopolitical risk
Oil prices and global growth
Global shipping costs
Global oil reserves
Living standards and energy prices
Natural capital 

Rare earths, the supply side and energy

Financial markets have experienced considerable gyrations in recent weeks, reflecting substantial shifts in investor expectations and heightened uncertainty, largely driven by ongoing US tariff policies. Against this backdrop, consensus growth forecasts have seen notable downward revisions across most major economies over the past 6 months. In our charts this week we home in on:
The Blue Chip growth consensus
The Blue Chip inflation consensus
Supply chain pressures and PPI inflation
US policy rate uncertainty
The UK labour market
Energy and growth  
 

Fault Lines and Rate Cuts

Recent weeks have seen a complex recalibration in global financial markets, as investors weigh the implications of renewed US tariff actions against accumulating signs of economic softness and growing confidence in the prospect of central bank easing. In our charts this week we home in on:
The global policy rate consensus
The US labour market and Fed easing expectations
Oil prices and inflation surprises
Services inflation in the euro area
Global trade conditions
China's domestic imbalances 

The Yield Awakening

Financial markets have entered a more unsettled phase, with long-term yields, until very recently, rising notably across the US, Europe, and Japan. While inflation persistence and increased government borrowing have played a role, the moves also reflect broader concerns about global policy credibility and capital market dynamics. In our charts this week we focus on:
The US dollar and Treasuries
Savings and investment imbalances
Central banks' QE policies
US productivity growth
Productivity growth in other advanced economies
Electricity prices 

Uncertainty Lingers

Despite escalating global economic uncertainty—driven in large part by US tariff policies—equity markets have, until recently, continued to surge, seemingly shrugging off risks that would typically provoke caution. This disconnect has grown more conspicuous in the wake of last week’s downgrade by Moody’s of the US sovereign debt outlook, which underscored mounting concerns over fiscal sustainability. In our charts this week we focus on:
Markets and uncertainty
Growth surprises and stocks
Regional growth surprises
US financial conditions
Japan's portfolio flows
Asia's energy demand