Macro Pulse

AI, Policy Easing and a Shifting Risk Premium

Recent weeks have seen renewed market swings — a softer US dollar, rotation within equities and shifting rate expectations — as investors reassess valuations, policy risks and the durability of US exceptionalism. Yet a consistent macro thread runs through our charts this week. This week’s themes include:
The US risk premium
Bank lending growth
Producing AI versus Using AI
Asia’s industrial production and AI
US orders of high tech products
Emerging market portfolio flows

In Conversation with Data Partner: ADP Research

This week, Dr. Nela Richardson, ADP Chief Economist and Head of ADP Research, joins Andy Cates on  to recap their recent webinar covering the ADP National Employment Report as well as the recently launched NER pulse. Listen to their conversation as we examine the power of ADP Payroll Data. 

Weaker Dollar, Stronger Tech

Financial markets have seen renewed gyrations in recent weeks, with a weaker US dollar, higher interest rate volatility and shifting capital flows reviving discussion of a “Sell America” narrative — so far more a marginal rebalancing than a wholesale retreat. In our charts this week we focus on:
 
Global growth conditions
The US dollar
Consumer confidence in the US and Europe
Financial markets and data surprises
The US economy and AI
Taiwan’s economy and AI

Between Optimism and Uncertainty

The global backdrop remains unsettled, reflected in rising gold prices amid geopolitical tensions. At the same time, however, many major equity indices remain at or close to all-time highs, buoyed by optimism around AI and reinforced by a run of relatively benign US inflation readings. In our charts this week we focus on:
The Blue Chip growth consensus
Central bank policy rate expectations
UK data surprises and the BoE
The impact of Artificial Intelligence
US business formation and productvity growth
China's export growth

Cooling Inflation, Diverging Growth

Over the past few weeks, global financial markets have taken comfort from cooling inflation, resilient earnings and continued upside surprises in the dataflow. More recently, however, geopolitical developments have injected a note of caution, even as the macro backdrop remains broadly supportive. In our charts this week we focus on:
Global growth conditions
Supply chain pressures and inflation
Interest rate expectations
Venezuela and oil
China's excess capacity
Public sector intebtedness

The Upside Risks

In this week’s charts, we highlight a cluster of upside risks that may be underappreciated in current economic forecasts. These include:
A faster-than-expected pace of policy easing in advanced economies 
A further sharp decline in oil prices
A positive AI-driven surprise from US productivity 
Unexpected resilience from the US economy
India's growth momentum firms again
The Global South exhibits much greater domestic autonomy
 
This marks our final Charts of the Week publication for 2026. The next edition will be released on Thursday 8 January.

The Downside Risks

As 2025 draws to a close, the global economy heads into 2026 with a surprisingly resilient backdrop: equities remain near cycle highs, volatility is low, and growth forecasts have been edging up. Against this constructive backdrop, our charts this week focus on some of the key downside risks that concern:
The global growth consensus
Central bank policy calibration
Financial market stability
AI expectation versus reality 
Global trade disruption
Geopolitical risks 

Diverging Paths, Converging Risks

Global financial markets have been navigating a more unsettled backdrop in recent weeks, with choppier risk sentiment and shifting rate expectations reshaping the macro narrative. US assets have been particularly sensitive to signs of cooling labour-market momentum, while rising real yields in Japan and renewed fiscal tightening in the UK have added further cross-currents. In our charts this week we home in on:
 
The global policy rate consensus
The US labour market
Euro area inflation 
Real rates in Japan
UK government debt 
South Korea's semiconductor trade

In Conversation with Data Partner: D&B's Global Business Survey Data

In this podcast, Arun Singh, Dun & Bradstreet's Global Chief Economist, joins Andy Cates from Haver Analytics, to explore D&B’s Global Business Insights Survey — a powerful decision-making lens for leaders who want to act early, think clearly, and navigate uncertainty with confidence.

The Year Ahead

As 2025 draws to a close, the global economy feels caught between relief and unease. Inflation has eased but not fully retreated, monetary-policy cycles are pulling in different directions, markets are oscillating between AI-driven enthusiasm and valuation nerves, and geopolitical tensions are pressing harder on trade, energy and investment flows. 
 
Against this backdrop, we discuss twelve themes that set out the forces most likely to shape the macro, market and policy landscape in 2026. They range from the pivotal questions around whether AI will deliver visible productivity gains, how far the AI narrative can continue to support markets, and how policymakers will manage an unusually uncertain interest-rate outlook, to the broader pressures created by fiscal strains, climate stress, shifting trade patterns, geopolitical fragmentation, political transitions, and demographic change.