Macro Pulse

Financial markets have clearly rattled by the sharp escalation of tensions in the Middle East over the past few days, with oil prices see-sawing, risk assets wobbling and investors reassessing the potential macroeconomic fallout from a potential energy shock. Yet, while it is still very early days, this week’s charts suggest that the global economic outlook has so far remained relatively resilient.

In this week’s Charts of the Week, we present six charts that illustrate some of the key issues, implications and points to watch, from the flare up of geopolitical instability in the Middle East. These include:
Movements in geopolitical risk
Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz
Energy prices
Global shipping costs and supply chain pressures
Inflation surprises and oil
The structure of global electricity generation

Over the past few days, financial markets have been navigating a fresh wave of policy and geopolitical cross-currents, with the US Supreme Court ruling on executive tariff authority adding a new layer of uncertainty to the trade outlook. At the same time, the AI investment boom continues to provide an important cyclical tailwind, even as investors remain alert to valuation risks. In our charts this week we focus on:
The Global Business Cycle
South Korea’s semiconductor trade
US investment in AI infrastructure
Germany’s capital spending renaissance
Oil prices and monetary policy
Japan’s economy and JGB yields
 

Recent weeks have seen renewed market swings — a softer US dollar, rotation within equities and shifting rate expectations — as investors reassess valuations, policy risks and the durability of US exceptionalism. Yet a consistent macro thread runs through our charts this week. This week’s themes include:
The US risk premium
Bank lending growth
Producing AI versus Using AI
Asia’s industrial production and AI
US orders of high tech products
Emerging market portfolio flows

This week, Dr. Nela Richardson, ADP Chief Economist and Head of ADP Research, joins Andy Cates on  to recap their recent webinar covering the ADP National Employment Report as well as the recently launched NER pulse. Listen to their conversation as we examine the power of ADP Payroll Data. 

Financial markets have seen renewed gyrations in recent weeks, with a weaker US dollar, higher interest rate volatility and shifting capital flows reviving discussion of a “Sell America” narrative — so far more a marginal rebalancing than a wholesale retreat. In our charts this week we focus on:
 
Global growth conditions
The US dollar
Consumer confidence in the US and Europe
Financial markets and data surprises
The US economy and AI
Taiwan’s economy and AI

The global backdrop remains unsettled, reflected in rising gold prices amid geopolitical tensions. At the same time, however, many major equity indices remain at or close to all-time highs, buoyed by optimism around AI and reinforced by a run of relatively benign US inflation readings. In our charts this week we focus on:
The Blue Chip growth consensus
Central bank policy rate expectations
UK data surprises and the BoE
The impact of Artificial Intelligence
US business formation and productvity growth
China's export growth

Over the past few weeks, global financial markets have taken comfort from cooling inflation, resilient earnings and continued upside surprises in the dataflow. More recently, however, geopolitical developments have injected a note of caution, even as the macro backdrop remains broadly supportive. In our charts this week we focus on:
Global growth conditions
Supply chain pressures and inflation
Interest rate expectations
Venezuela and oil
China's excess capacity
Public sector intebtedness

In this week’s charts, we highlight a cluster of upside risks that may be underappreciated in current economic forecasts. These include:
A faster-than-expected pace of policy easing in advanced economies 
A further sharp decline in oil prices
A positive AI-driven surprise from US productivity 
Unexpected resilience from the US economy
India's growth momentum firms again
The Global South exhibits much greater domestic autonomy
 
This marks our final Charts of the Week publication for 2026. The next edition will be released on Thursday 8 January.

As 2025 draws to a close, the global economy heads into 2026 with a surprisingly resilient backdrop: equities remain near cycle highs, volatility is low, and growth forecasts have been edging up. Against this constructive backdrop, our charts this week focus on some of the key downside risks that concern:
The global growth consensus
Central bank policy calibration
Financial market stability
AI expectation versus reality 
Global trade disruption
Geopolitical risks