Macro Pulse

Shutdowns and Shake-Ups

Financial markets have been navigating a US government shutdown that has frozen key data releases and muddied the macro picture. In the meantime, political cross-currents in Europe and Asia have added to the noise. In our charts this week we drill into:
The US labour market
Global productivity trends
Electricity prices
Natural capital versus produced capital
Japan's politics
Vietnam's economy 

Signals, Surprises and Shifts

Global financial markets have remained resilient in recent days, supported by a combination of easing inflation concerns, steady growth data, and hopes that geopolitical risks may ease. At the same time, investors are watching the fallout from the US government shutdown, which is likely to suspend or delay the release of key economic indicators, including Friday’s nonfarm payrolls. In our charts this week we focus on:
Policy rate expectations
Growth and inflation surprises
US business formation
US productivity trends and AI
Semiconductor trade
Defence spending 

Resilient Activity, Noisy Policy

Global financial markets have remained steady over the past few days: equity volatility remains low, credit spreads remain contained and core yields have drifted rather than lurched, even as policy noise—especially around US trade—remains high. In our charts this week we focus on:
Global growth momentum
European bond markets
South Korean trade
Global labour market activity
UK financial balances
Equity markets and uncertainty 
 

Faith in the Fed, Faith in Fiber

Global equity markets have remained near record highs over the past few days following the Fed’s 25bp cut on Wednesday, and which investors have arguably seen as a key prop even without a full dovish pivot. Clearly AI optimism is also doing some heavy lifting. In our charts this week we drill into:
Equity markets and consumer confidence
Inflation expectations and oil prices
Forecasts for US profitability
The Fed and Asia's policy rates
Global food prices
UK inflation 

Labouring the point

Financial markets have spent the week recalibrating after last Friday’s much weaker-than-expected US payrolls data: government bond yields have declined sharply, while equity markets have remained perky off hopes of a gentler policy path and still-resilient earnings. Even so, the medium-term growth lens has arguably continue to dim. In our charts this week we focus on:
The Blue Chip growth consensus
US payroll revisions
Healthcare employment
China's trade with the US and Asia
Private sector indebtedness
Global supply chain pressures

A Few Cuts More

Equity markets have lost a little ground in recent days and bond markets have been more jittery, as legal challenges to US tariff policies add to a tense backdrop of geopolitical meetings between China, Russia, and India. In our charts this week we focus on:
Gold prices and trade policy uncertainty
US Tariffs
India's economy and markets
Global monetary policy
Euro area inflation
The US profit cycle

In Conversation With Data Partner: The Conference Board of Canada

Haver Analytics sits down with Pedro Antunes, Chief Economist at The Conference Board of Canada, and Cory Renner, who leads the Board’s forecasting team. Together, they discuss how Canada’s economic outlook is shaped by detailed provincial and metropolitan data, why quarterly accounts matter, and how large-scale models and real-time insights help forecast growth, investment, and labor market trends. Listeners will get an inside look at how The Conference Board builds trusted forecasts and what this means for understanding Canada’s evolving economy.

Cracks Beneath The Shine

Recent financial market gains have been underpinned by resilient global data, AI-fuelled optimism, and hopes that most central banks will continue to loosen monetary policy. Yet beneath the surface, a more complicated picture may be emerging. In our chart this week we home in on:
US housing indicators
China's economy
UK inflation
Oil and inflation expectations
Clean energy
Renewables versus non-renewables
 

What gives?

Global financial markets head into late summer buoyed by resilient risk appetite, underpinned by hopes that AI will boost productivity and growth alongside expectations for further central bank policy easing. Yet this optimism has not been fully mirrored in the macro outlook. In our charts this week we focus on:
Markets and data surprises
The US investment consensus
The global growth consensus
US inflation drivers
The UK labour market
Energy prices and monetary policy 

Downside Risks

Following last week's softer-than-expected US labour market report bond yields have fallen sharply as investors repriced the outlook for Fed easing. This recalibration arguably also reflects growing awareness of mounting downside risks across the US and broader global economy. In our charts this week we focus on:
Capacity pressures in the US and Europe
US housing market weakness
US bank lending standards
Global growth momentum
Shipping costs and supply chain pressures
Excess capacity in China