Signals, Surprises and Shifts

Global financial markets have remained resilient in recent days, supported by a combination of easing inflation concerns, steady growth data, and hopes that geopolitical risks may ease. At the same time, investors are watching the fallout from the US government shutdown, which is likely to suspend or delay the release of key economic indicators, including Friday’s nonfarm payrolls. In our charts this week we focus on:

• Policy rate expectations
• Growth and inflation surprises
• US business formation
• US productivity trends and AI
• Semiconductor trade
• Defence spending