Are we nearly there yet?

Financial markets have been rattled both by more hawkish communications from central banks and some much firmer-than-expected US labour market data in recent days. The consensus that monetary policy tightening cycles were close to completion and that soft landing scenarios were plausible is now being more actively challenged. In our charts this week we drill into the following issues:

·       The central bank policy consensus

·       The messaging from the US yield curve

·       Negative global inflation surprises

·       Receding capacity tensions in US manufacturing

·       Ebbing near-term inflation expectations in the euro area

·       The inflation messages from Japan’s Tankan survey