Between Relief and Reality

The US-Iran MoU has delivered a genuine moment of geopolitical relief — oil lower, yields down, risk assets recovering. But relief is not the same as resolution. Beneath the headlines, the underlying data continue to tell a more complex story.

 

In our charts this week:

 

• US growth outperformance widens; Europe and China disappoint
• UK gilt yields, oil prices and the Bank of England's next move
• Global semiconductor sales surge to record highs on AI demand
• Oil retreats on the MoU; copper, uranium and critical minerals hold firm
• Energy availability as a binding constraint on growth
• Why this investment boom looks different from the late 1990s