Calmer Waters, New Currents

Oil is lower, Hormuz traffic is recovering, and the geopolitical risk premium embedded in energy markets since March is unwinding. But calmer waters shouldn't be confused with resolved ones. Beneath the surface, some important new currents are running.

 

In our charts this week:

 

• Equity market momentum and global growth surprises — a shifting picture
• Oil and US two-year yields have decoupled — the Fed under Warsh isn't following crude lower
• June flash PMIs: supply chain stress easing, manufacturing price pressures softening
• Hormuz shipping traffic recovering — direction matters even if levels remain depressed
• South Korea exports, including semis, flagging a modest loss of momentum
• Super El Niño building — the SOI is drifting negative, and history shows what that means for Asian rice supply