Close to completion?

The downgrade of US government debt by a credit rating agency has been a big driver of this week’s financial market gyrations. The decision by the Bank of England to lift policy rates by 25bps (with hints of more to follow) coupled with firmer-than-expected private sector payrolls data from the US also served as a reminder that central banks may not yet have completed their tightening cycles. In our charts this week we look at:

·         The central bank consensus

·         US financial market conditions

·         Service sector inflation in the euro area and US

·         Global economic policy uncertainty

·         World trade and commodity market activity

·         Rice prices