Geopolitics, oil, the IMF and China

Investors have grown increasingly cautious about the economic outlook in recent days, partly thanks to heightened geopolitical instability in the Middle East. That Fed Chair Powell has also expressed greater concern about the US inflation outlook has not helped, not least as higher oil prices (and the resilience of the US economy) had already been unsettling investors’ inflation expectations. In our charts this week we focus on:

·       The IMF’s latest economic forecasts

·       Geopolitical risk and oil prices

·       Global oil reserves

·       US Treasury yields versus oil prices

·       US financial conditions and economic growth

·       China’s economic growth in Q1