Inflation at the Crossroads

The global macro backdrop has grown more unsettled. A stronger-than-expected US jobs report has pushed back Fed easing expectations, a tech sell-off has rattled sentiment, and Middle East instability continues to keep energy markets on edge. In our latest Charts of the Week we examine:

 

• GDP growth forecasts: broad deterioration, with Taiwan the striking exception
• Why 2027 inflation forecasts are now drifting above target
• The reassuring signal from US unit labour costs
• Renewed supply chain stress and the PPI pipeline
• Energy costs as a structural constraint, not an exceptional shock
• China's quiet trade normalisation with the US

 

The key question is whether the current energy shock proves more persistent than even the already-cautious consensus currently assumes.