Oil in the price

This week’s stronger-than-expected US inflation data have further dampened hopes that the Fed would swiftly lower interest rates in coming months. And this has led to increased anxiety about the outlook for the US and broader world economy. In our charts this week we home in on:

·         The global growth consensus

·         The global inflation consensus

·         Energy prices and US inflation surprises

·         Oil prices and global growth surprises

·         The global business cycle

·         Euro area bank lending conditions