Still Standing

Talk of a potential easing in Middle East tensions has steadied markets. But scratch the surface, and the macro picture remains far from settled. This week’s charts highlight the growing tension:

 

• Global manufacturing holding up — despite higher energy prices
• Shipping costs rising — supply chains tightening again
• Oil production constrained — logistics, not demand, the issue
• Policy expectations shifting — tilt back toward tightening risk

• US bank lending standards – in neutral for now

• Wage pressures still elevated — particularly in the UK

 

The takeaway? Markets are still standing — but the balance between growth and inflation is becoming increasingly fragile.