Surprise, Surprise

Markets have swung back toward inflation angst as Middle East tensions and higher energy prices push bond yields higher again. But beneath the surface, the macro picture remains increasingly divided:

 

• US inflation surprises re-emerging
• Global bond yields backing up
• US labour bargaining power still weak
• Oil prices elevated despite fading war fears
• Core inflation still relatively benign
• AI investment boom accelerating

 

The global economy remains caught between two powerful and competing forces: renewed supply-side inflation risks on one side and a historic AI-driven investment boom on the other.