Tension Beneath the Surface

Despite persistent geopolitical tensions, higher energy prices, and a packed week of central bank decisions (Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ), financial markets have remained remarkably resilient. But beneath that surface calm, the data are starting to tell a more complicated story. This week’s charts highlight the growing tension:

 

• Front-end yields repricing “higher for longer”
• Real-time US recession risks — contained
• A divergence in consumer confidence (US vs Europe)
• Tighter credit conditions in the euro area
• An intensifying semiconductor price boom
• And AI beginning to reshape labour markets

 

The takeaway? Markets may be holding up — but the underlying macro is becoming more finely balanced.