Trade shocks

The return of protectionist trade policies under the new US administration has added a significant layer of uncertainty to an already fragile global landscape. This was dramatically amplified on April 2nd, when the administration announced a sweeping package of tariffs on a broad range of imports from key trading partners—including the EU, China, and several emerging markets. These measures were more expansive in both scope and scale than markets had anticipated, and they carry the potential for significant global economic disruption—particularly if targeted trading partners respond with retaliatory countermeasures, escalating the risk of a full-scale trade conflict.

In our charts this week we focus on:

·       US trade policy uncertainty

·       US data surprises and stagflation risks

·       The policy rate consensus

·       Europe’s labour market

·       China’s economy

·       Global trade fragility