Walking a tightrope

Markets have become increasingly optimistic this week about a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September following some dovish remarks from Fed Chair Powell. Meanwhile, the IMF has maintained that the outlook for the world economy remains broadly balanced, a message that chimes too with the latest Blue Chip survey of economic forecasters. In our charts this week we focus on:

·         The global growth consensus

·         US data surprises and now casts

·         Recession probability indicators

·         Global markets and economic data

·         China’s economy

·         South-East Asian trade