Macro Pulse

Reversal of fortune

A Fed easing narrative has been re-energized over the past few days largely thanks to a slightly weaker than expected US CPI report this week but, more generally, because of a battery of weaker-than-expected US data over the past couple of weeks. In our charts this week we examine the following:
·       Consensus growth expectations for 2024
·       GDP growth in advanced economies in  Q1
·       The German economy’s under-performance
·       A slowing UK labour market
·       US immigration
·       Global food price inflation

Inflation still holds the key

Last week's softer-than-expected US data releases have sparked renewed hopes that the Federal Reserve may initiate an easing cycle in the coming months, and, in doing so, have reignited investors' appetite for risk. This week, our charts explore the following:
·       The US economic outlook
·       US momentum versus RoW momentum
·       Global inflation surprises
·       Oil and US yields
·       Global supply chain pressures
·       Asian FX market performance

Policy Surprises Versus Data Surprises

Lingering concerns about the US Fed's inclination to lower interest rates in coming months have continued to unsettle financial markets over the past few days. That said, comments from Fed Chair Powell after this week’s FOMC meeting have calmed some of those nerves. In our charts this week we delve into the following issues:
·         The latest Blue Chip consensus for policy rates
·         US growth surprises and 2-year yields
·         The euro and relative growth surprises
·         Japan’s retail sales activity
·         China’s aircraft movements
·         Water levels on the Panama Canal

Flash Dance

Following a week in which the risks to the global economic outlook suddenly skewed to the downside, the pendulum has swung back again over the past few days. Confidence in a soft landing for the world economy has instead now re-surfaced partly thanks to firmer-than-expected global economic data, together with some solid corporate earnings reports from the United States. In our charts this week we delve into:
·         The global business cycle
·         Copper prices
·         Semiconductor trade
·         Monetary policy transmission
·         US fiscal policy support
·         Euro area financial balances

Geopolitics, oil, the IMF and China

Investors have grown increasingly cautious about the economic outlook in recent days, partly thanks to heightened geopolitical instability in the Middle East. That Fed Chair Powell has also expressed greater concern about the US inflation outlook has not helped, not least as higher oil prices (and the resilience of the US economy) had already been unsettling investors’ inflation expectations. In our charts this week we focus on:
·       The IMF’s latest economic forecasts
·       Geopolitical risk and oil prices
·       Global oil reserves
·       US Treasury yields versus oil prices
·       US financial conditions and economic growth
·       China’s economic growth in Q1

Oil in the price

This week’s stronger-than-expected US inflation data have further dampened hopes that the Fed would swiftly lower interest rates in coming months. And this has led to increased anxiety about the outlook for the US and broader world economy. In our charts this week we home in on:
·         The global growth consensus
·         The global inflation consensus
·         Energy prices and US inflation surprises
·         Oil prices and global growth surprises
·         The global business cycle
·         Euro area bank lending conditions

Something for everyone

Renewed concerns about the US Fed's ability to lower interest rates in coming months have triggered broader anxiety in financial markets over the past few days. In our charts this week we focus on:
·         South Korea’s trade flows
·         Euro area CPI inflation
·         US money market inflows
·         Global economic policy uncertainty
·         US productivity and new business applications
·         China’s credit formation and business surveys

The soft landing narrative (again)

Recent weeks have seen heightened optimism in financial markets that the global economy is on course for a soft landing. This optimism is rooted in a number of factors, including stronger-than-expected economic data, dovish communications from several central banks alongside tame inflation outcomes in Europe and Asia. In our charts this week we offer further perspective on this narrative. Specifically we look at:
·         Broad money growth and equity markets
·         The resilience of US capital spending
·         Receding inflation expectations in the euro area
·         Fading global supply chain pressures
·         Equity market inflows in Asia
·         India’s catch-up growth potential
 

Up, down, and somewhere in between

The decisions from several central banks this week have, on the whole, amplified hopes that the world economy remains on course for a soft landing. Investors were certainly reassured by the absence of big changes to the Fed's interest rate outlook as well as this week’s unexpected decision to cut interest rates by the Swiss National Bank. In our charts this week we examine:
·         US interest rate expectations
·         Japan’s interest rate differentials and the yen
·         Core inflation in several advanced economies
·         Emerging market growth surprises
·         China’s credit impulse
·         Equity market inflows in major economies

Not too shocking

With little to destabilise financial markets over the past few days, soft landing narratives have remained in vogue. While this week’s US CPI report was certainly a little stronger-than-anticipated, other indicators, including the latest UK labour market report, were more benign. In charts this week we look in more depth at:
·       US Inflation drivers
·       The health of the UK labour market
·       Japan’s supply side drivers
·       China’s EV penetration
·       Consensus growth forecasts
·       Economic shocks and the consensus