Macro Pulse

The Year Ahead

As 2025 draws to a close, the global economy feels caught between relief and unease. Inflation has eased but not fully retreated, monetary-policy cycles are pulling in different directions, markets are oscillating between AI-driven enthusiasm and valuation nerves, and geopolitical tensions are pressing harder on trade, energy and investment flows. 
 
Against this backdrop, we discuss twelve themes that set out the forces most likely to shape the macro, market and policy landscape in 2026. They range from the pivotal questions around whether AI will deliver visible productivity gains, how far the AI narrative can continue to support markets, and how policymakers will manage an unusually uncertain interest-rate outlook, to the broader pressures created by fiscal strains, climate stress, shifting trade patterns, geopolitical fragmentation, political transitions, and demographic change.

The Year in Review

The global economic story of 2025 has been one of resilience amid disruption. Despite a succession of shocks — from US trade policies and elevated geopolitical risks— the world economy has held up better than many feared. In our charts this week we review:
Global data surprises and market volatility
Monetary policy calibration and inflation
The stance of fiscal policy
AI investment and productivity growth
US/China trade flows
Uncertainty and geopolitical risk

Optimism with caveats

Global equity markets are once again flirting with record highs, buoyed by renewed optimism that the global economy can achieve a soft landing—and by persistent enthusiasm over the potential productivity gains from AI-related investment. In our charts this week we focus on:
The Fed and interest rate expectations
The global business cycle
Consumer confidence in the US and Europe
Euro area credit conditions
UK manufacturing
Shipping costs and traded goods prices

Risks and Relief

Financial markets have been pulled between opposing forces in recent days. Risk sentiment has been hit by concerns over US lenders, credit conditions, tariffs, the government shutdown, and a potential AI-driven valuation bubble (chart 1). Offsetting this, easing growth and inflation have strengthened expectations of further central bank rate cuts, lifting soft-landing hopes. In our charts this week we drill into:
 
US equity market valuations
Non-US equity markets and data surprises
Oil prices and monetary policy
China's credit growth
US wage pressures
UK inflation

Momentum With Caveats

Global financial markets are entering mid-October with a cautiously optimistic tone, supported by a mix of better macro data and easing geopolitical risk. In our charts this week we drill into:
 
The global growth consensus
US investment in data centres
Views on AI and productivity
Geopolitical risks and oil prices
China's trade patterns
The UK labour market 

Shutdowns and Shake-Ups

Financial markets have been navigating a US government shutdown that has frozen key data releases and muddied the macro picture. In the meantime, political cross-currents in Europe and Asia have added to the noise. In our charts this week we drill into:
The US labour market
Global productivity trends
Electricity prices
Natural capital versus produced capital
Japan's politics
Vietnam's economy 

Signals, Surprises and Shifts

Global financial markets have remained resilient in recent days, supported by a combination of easing inflation concerns, steady growth data, and hopes that geopolitical risks may ease. At the same time, investors are watching the fallout from the US government shutdown, which is likely to suspend or delay the release of key economic indicators, including Friday’s nonfarm payrolls. In our charts this week we focus on:
Policy rate expectations
Growth and inflation surprises
US business formation
US productivity trends and AI
Semiconductor trade
Defence spending 

Resilient Activity, Noisy Policy

Global financial markets have remained steady over the past few days: equity volatility remains low, credit spreads remain contained and core yields have drifted rather than lurched, even as policy noise—especially around US trade—remains high. In our charts this week we focus on:
Global growth momentum
European bond markets
South Korean trade
Global labour market activity
UK financial balances
Equity markets and uncertainty 
 

Faith in the Fed, Faith in Fiber

Global equity markets have remained near record highs over the past few days following the Fed’s 25bp cut on Wednesday, and which investors have arguably seen as a key prop even without a full dovish pivot. Clearly AI optimism is also doing some heavy lifting. In our charts this week we drill into:
Equity markets and consumer confidence
Inflation expectations and oil prices
Forecasts for US profitability
The Fed and Asia's policy rates
Global food prices
UK inflation 

Labouring the point

Financial markets have spent the week recalibrating after last Friday’s much weaker-than-expected US payrolls data: government bond yields have declined sharply, while equity markets have remained perky off hopes of a gentler policy path and still-resilient earnings. Even so, the medium-term growth lens has arguably continue to dim. In our charts this week we focus on:
The Blue Chip growth consensus
US payroll revisions
Healthcare employment
China's trade with the US and Asia
Private sector indebtedness
Global supply chain pressures