Macro Pulse

Sentiment Up, Forecasts Down

Financial market sentiment has improved notably in recent days, buoyed by an unexpected pause in the US-China tariff war and the May 12 announcement of significantly reduced bilateral tariff rates. This détente has eased investor fears of a deepening global trade shock and sparked a rebound in risk appetite. Our charts this week focus on:
US shipping activity
The Blue Chip Growth Consensus
The Blue Chip Inflation Consensus
Global imbalances
US bank lending standards
Oil prices and inflation expectations

Tariff Truce, Tenuous Trust

Financial markets found a measure of calm this week, buoyed by some subtle shifts in tone from US policymakers. But beneath the surface, significant downside risks persist. In our charts this week we focus on:
China-US shipping activity
US and Euro area GDP growth
Yield differentials and the US dollar
Structural growth drivers and the dollar
Competitiveness gauges in the US, Europe, Japan and China
Monthly wage costs in selected economies

Dollar Dips and Trade Trips

Financial market volatility has remained elevated over the past several days as investors attempted to weigh a modest improvement in sentiment—driven by a potential, if partial, retreat by the US administration from its aggressive tariff stance—against a still-cloudy global outlook. In our charts this week we focus on:
Global growth signals
US capex intentions
South Korea's trade
Gold prices
The US dollar and market volatility
Global rebalancing

From Blue To Red

US policy decisions have continued to generate volatility in financial markets, reflecting mounting investor unease about the global economic outlook. Consensus forecasts for growth in 2025 have certainly been revised down significantly, while inflation expectations—particularly in the US—have moved higher. In our charts this week we focus on:
Consensus growth forecasts
Consensus inflation forecasts
Financial market volatility
US business sentiment
Global shipping costs
China's real estate sector 
 

Mission Impossible and Fallout

The global economy received a brief reprieve on April 9th, as President Trump announced a 90-day pause on his sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs. However, intensifying US-China trade tensions continue to cast a long shadow over the economic outlook. In our charts this week we focus on:
China and US trade tariffs
US investment in intangibles
US trade deficits and relative demand
High-tech trade and US capacity
Uncertainty and financial markets
The global business cycle 

Trade shocks

The return of protectionist trade policies under the new US administration has added a significant layer of uncertainty to an already fragile global landscape. This was dramatically amplified on April 2nd, when the administration announced a sweeping package of tariffs on a broad range of imports from key trading partners—including the EU, China, and several emerging markets. These measures were more expansive in both scope and scale than markets had anticipated, and they carry the potential for significant global economic disruption—particularly if targeted trading partners respond with retaliatory countermeasures, escalating the risk of a full-scale trade conflict.
In our charts this week we focus on:
·       US trade policy uncertainty
·       US data surprises and stagflation risks
·       The policy rate consensus
·       Europe’s labour market
·       China’s economy
·       Global trade fragility

Tariffs, Tensions, and Trade-Offs

Financial markets remain gripped by heightened uncertainty surrounding US trade policy, slowing US growth, and broader fears of global economic instability. In our charts this week we home in on:
·       Manufacturers’ input prices
·       Supply chain pressures and UK inflation
·       The dollar and US growth
·       Electricity prices in selected major economies
·       Living standards (and energy prices)
·       China’s exports and competitiveness

Reversal of fortunes

US equity markets have underperformed relative to global peers in recent weeks, as investor sentiment has deteriorated in response to weaker-than-expected growth data and growing concerns about the Trump administration’s economic policies. The administration’s renewed push for tariffs, alongside fiscal expansion and tighter immigration policies, has fuelled stagflation fears, compounding the uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s next steps. In our charts this week we focus on:
·         US equity markets and data surprises
·         US capital flows versus the dollar
·         National savings rates
·         Ageing populations and deindustrialisation
·         Wage inflation in the US and Europe
·         China’s property market
 

From Blue to Red

Download the free charts and commentary here: https://haverproducts.com/charts-of-the-week/
The recent financial market volatility, marked by sharp swings in global bond yields and equity market repricing, reflects growing uncertainty about the trajectory of the US economy amid a rapidly shifting policy environment. The US administration’s latest tariff measures, and their conflicting objectives, have amplified uncertainty, stifled risk appetite and ignited global growth concerns. In our charts this week we focus on:
·       Fading US growth momentum
·       Consensus inflation forecasts
·       Global bond market gyrations
·       Foreign ownership of US assets
·       Industrialisation versus de-industrialisation
·       Global competitiveness
 

Goodwill Hunting

View the charts here: https://haverproducts.com/charts-of-the-week/Financial markets have experienced heightened volatility in recent days, with investor sentiment rattled by rising US recession risks, escalating global trade tensions, and mounting geopolitical uncertainties. Sharp decline in US stocks, lower yields coupled with weaker confidence data reflect growing concerns that recent trade and economic policies from the US administration are sapping economic growth and increasing financial instability. In our charts this week we focus on:
US recession risks
FDI and Goodwill
China’s growth target
South Korea’s economy
The ECB and inflation
Energy and growth