Macro Pulse

From Blue to Red

Download the free charts and commentary here: https://haverproducts.com/charts-of-the-week/
The recent financial market volatility, marked by sharp swings in global bond yields and equity market repricing, reflects growing uncertainty about the trajectory of the US economy amid a rapidly shifting policy environment. The US administration’s latest tariff measures, and their conflicting objectives, have amplified uncertainty, stifled risk appetite and ignited global growth concerns. In our charts this week we focus on:
·       Fading US growth momentum
·       Consensus inflation forecasts
·       Global bond market gyrations
·       Foreign ownership of US assets
·       Industrialisation versus de-industrialisation
·       Global competitiveness
 

Goodwill Hunting

View the charts here: https://haverproducts.com/charts-of-the-week/Financial markets have experienced heightened volatility in recent days, with investor sentiment rattled by rising US recession risks, escalating global trade tensions, and mounting geopolitical uncertainties. Sharp decline in US stocks, lower yields coupled with weaker confidence data reflect growing concerns that recent trade and economic policies from the US administration are sapping economic growth and increasing financial instability. In our charts this week we focus on:
US recession risks
FDI and Goodwill
China’s growth target
South Korea’s economy
The ECB and inflation
Energy and growth

No Free Lunch

The global economy remains in a delicate position, with financial markets exhibiting resilience despite key policy uncertainties, geopolitical sensitivities, and a fragile pace of economic growth across many regions. In our charts this week we focus on:
·       US growth surprises
·       US trade in goods versus services
·       Global policy uncertainty and the dollar
·       Defence spending in Europe
·       Dun and Bradstreet’s risk indicators
·       Canada’s supply side risks
 

Calm before the storm?

Financial markets have remained relatively calm in recent days despite potentially disruptive US trade policy shifts and incoming data indicating that inflationary pressures have been lingering. Investor sentiment suggests a wait-and-see approach, with markets appearing confident that central banks can navigate inflation risks without triggering sharp economic slowdowns. In our charts this week we home in on:·       Uncertainty and markets
·       US inflation and tariffs
·       Wage pressures in the US and Europe
·       Global growth at the end of last year
·       Electricity prices in major economies
·       Japan’s economic momentum

Tariff Trouble

Copy and paste this link into your browser to download the free chart pack and follow along with the podcast:  https://haverproducts.com/?sdm_process_download=1&download_id=25814President Trump’s tariff policies have been a major driver of financial market volatility in recent days, sparking sharp swings in equities and currencies. While the administration has temporarily reversed its proposal for a 25% tariff on imported goods from Canada and Mexico, uncertainty surrounding US trade relationships, the risk of retaliatory measures from key trading partners, and broader concerns about global growth continue to unsettle investors. In our charts this week we drill into the following:
·         Global current account balances
·         The US dollar’s resilience
·         Potential growth rates in the US versus the RoW
·         The US dollar’s reserve currency status
·         Savings, investment and demographics
·         Global shipping costs and supply chain pressures

Haver Speaks to Jasper McMahon, Co-Founder and CEO of Now-Casting Economics

In an era where timely data is everything, Now-Casting Economics—Haver’s newest data partner—is redefining macroeconomic forecasting. In this episode, Jasper McMahon, co-founder and CEO of Now-Casting, joins us to explore how their automated models provide real-time GDP, CPI, and macroeconomic estimates for major economies worldwide. Discover how point-in-time data enhances forecasting precision and supports better decision-making in fast-moving markets. Don’t miss this insightful discussion—tune in now.

Trump cards

Financial markets have enjoyed a notable lift in sentiment over recent days, driven by renewed optimism about the domestic economic policies of a new US administration. Investors have certainly been cheered by early signals of a pro-growth strategy, with the energy sector taking centre stage. In our charts this week we home in on:
·         Energy and labour markets
·         Electricity prices in advanced economies
·         The UK labour market
·         Saving and unemployment
·         China’s credit impulse
·         South Korean trade

Yielding Conclusions

A steep sell-off in global bond markets has dominated the financial headlines over the past week or so, drawing intense scrutiny from investors and policymakers alike. Although weaker-than-expected inflation data from the US and UK have managed to stop the rot for now, anxiety remains high. Investors are certainly on edge about the broader drivers of this rout and its implications. In our charts this week we focus on:
·         Global bond yields
·         Inflation expectations
·         Overseas holdings of US Treasuries
·         Japan’s breakeven inflation rate
·         Quantitative tightening
·         Service sector inflation in the US and UK
 
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Energy, naturally

Investors have returned to focusing on several familiar themes so far this year including the resilience of the US economy, the implications of a new US administration, simmering geopolitical tensions, and the productivity potential of AI. The steep climb in global bond yields that’s unfolded over recent weeks additionally suggests that inflation concerns and debt sustainability issues have re-surfaced as well. In our charts this week we focus on:
·         US yields and growth surprises
·         Natural gas prices and US inflation
·         Consensus forecasts for policy rates
·         Euro area inflation and wage pressures
·         The US dollar and energy trade
·         Energy trade in selected major economies

Inflated Expectations

Investors have shifted their attention back to the economic data and monetary policy over the past few days, marking a shift from recent weeks when political developments took centre stage in shaping financial market sentiment. While this week’s decision by the US Fed to cut policy rates by 25 bps was widely anticipated, the accompanying commentary and forecasts have heightened concerns that US monetary policy will remain tighter for longer in the months ahead. In our charts this week we discuss the following issues:
·         Stock markets and economic data
·         Monetary policy and services inflation
·         Broad money growth and house prices
·         Supply chain pressures and inflation risk
·         The Bank of Japan’s monetary policy
·         China’s economic outlook